Week 14 Power Rankings – Regular Season Finale

Well, we’ve made it, in just a few short days the regular season will be over. This is my 16th post of the year, which feels like it should fulfill the full punishment, but we will see this thing through to the end. I was going to do awards this week, but I’m going to save that for the true finale. Instead, we are being pretty uncreative and doubling down on last week’s theme of matchups. Let’s figure out what exactly could go down by the end of Monday Night..

Before we jump into the rankings, just a minute on the cruelness of fantasy football. As of this morning, Jamison had scored the most points in our League, but he’s somehow 7&6. While making a truly inspired playoff push over the 2nd half of the season, he lost last week while scoring 127 points, which was good enough for 3rd most. He could have played 9 of the 11 possible opponents and won (which would have clinched the playoffs), unfortunately he played 1 of the 2 that could beat him, and thus finds himself in a very precarious position. I was still going to shock the world and make him my #1 for the final regular season, but then Davante and Moreau shit the bed tonight..

*Clinched Playoffs

#1: The Van Buren Boys (9-4)* vs #2 Drop Your Mikes (9-4)*

Welcome to the big time TVBB. I really struggled with who to make #1. I couldn’t give it to Jeremy, who has lost 2 in a row, and hasn’t had a player starting in a “WR” spot score more than 10 points since week 9 (his last 8 WR scores have averaged 5.6 points.) That seems like a problem in a pass first league. So TVBB gets this spot by default, which let’s all be honest, was really the only way I was going to give #1 to Connor. Good players on good teams are good things to have as the season gets late. A bit of luck in Pacheco to plug a hole at RB also helps. A W by TVBB practically locks up a Bye, as would a W by Mikes – but that isn’t going to happen.

Prediction: TVBB over Dropping Mikes.

#3: Kupp and Down (9-4)* vs #10 Nasty Nick (4-9)

Tough L for the Commish. Scores 122 and loses to Re-draft. The good news is that his consolation prize is playing Nasty Nick, the bad news is that Nasty Nick has actually been nasty lately, scoring the 2nd most points total over the past 2 weeks. Nicks had an ok start to the week, but Jacobs didn’t explode like he has recently. The path is simple for Commish, Win and he’s got a Bye. Luckily, based on the foolproof forecasting of yours truly, we know he doesn’t even have to do that. Mike’s and Redraft Lose and Commish could fall backwards into a bye.

Prediction: Kupp and Down over Nasty

#4: Can we Re-Draft (9-4)* vs #5 Sticky Loins (7-6)

The Consistency Bowl… Re-draft and Loins have the two lowest standard deviations in the league, (Byron’s is +/- 12.5!!!). Both have also scored over 100 points 9 times, good enough for T2 in that metric (Commish has scored 100+ 10 times). Despite scoring the 7th most points in the league, that consistency has Mr. Stevens with a path to a bye week. This is where things get technical. If both Mikes and Kupps lose, Byron just needs to win. If Mikes and Kupp win, Re-draft has no shot. If TVBB knocks off Mikes, Byron needs to win and outscore TVBB by 14 points. If TVBB loses, and Kupps loses, Byron is in… Is your head spinning yet, mine is. On the flip side, Scoone’s path is also a god damn mess. Win and he’s into the playoffs, lose and well, it’s going to come down to what happened elsewhere. Scoones is rooting for Tee and against Jack. A loss by Tee would be bad, as if Scoones loses and Tee loses, Tee almost certainly wins on points tie breaker. If Scoones loses, Tee wins, and Jack Wins, he can still get in, but needs to outscore Jack by 5.2 points. If Tee Wins, Jack loses, and Scoones Loses, than Scoones is in assuming that Legends doesn’t outscore him by 55 points.

In determining what would happen in this matchup I went out and did some good old fashioned reporting on the game and got a quote from Re-Draft: “Crushing Scoone’s Playoff hopes is my only priority” If that isn’t bulletin board material I don’t know what is. Ok, I’ve rambled on way too long, and you guys probably have absolutely no idea what I’m talking about.

Prediction: Justin Jefferson scores 1 Million points against Detroit, Sticky over Redraft

#5: Low Tee (7-6) vs #7 Jonathon’s Legends (7-6)

Oh BABY, our first real straight up fight for the playoffs. This might as well be one of the “First Four” Tuesday games that nobody fills out on their March Madness Bracket. As previously stated, if Tee had won last week and locked up the Playoffs, I would have made him #1. But he didn’t, and then this week started really really poorly. Kamara’s Bye week comes at a very inopportune time (although he has absolutely sucked lately). There’s just not enough fire power in the roster with Fields on bye as well to like them. On the other side, Legends also has an unfortunate bye with Taylor, but Chubb, St. Brown, and Waddle are going to be more than enough. I like Thielen too in a Vikings/Lions game that’s going to have 10 touchdowns scored in it. Jamison, you fought hard, you just didn’t have a lick of luck. Legends has almost no path to the playoffs with a loss, which makes life simple. Tee as previously covered in the Sticky writeup, could lose and still get in with a Scoones loss.

Prediction: Legends over Low Tee

#7: Three & Outs (6-7) vs #12 Sad Drank (3-10)

Ok, last week ESPN had 3 & Outs with a 14% chance to make the playoffs, that is all the way up to 22%, an over 50% improvement! Before diving into the exact sequence of events that needs to happen, I’m going to take a moment to congratulate myself (I know, I do this a lot, but its all I have). Last week I predicted that Outs would beat Legends in the closest game of the week, and it happened, with Jack winning by less than a full point. Ok, so what do we need to happen for this squad to avoid being the greatest team ever to miss the playoffs. Well first, Outs needs to win, but they are playing Dranks, so let’s just go ahead and check that one as a “Yes”. Assuming that is taken care of, his most likely path to the playoffs is losses by both Sticky and Legends. If Sticky wins, it’s over as that would guarantee two teams make it to 8-6. If Sticky and Tee lose that’s where our prayers get really big, as Jack would need the difference between his score and Tee’s score to be bigger than 52.4 points. After the egg Jamo laid tonight its possible, but that’s a really big number.

Prediction: 3 & Outs over Drank (I RANK FOREVER!)

#9: Okweugbunam Lowes (5-8) vs #10 I Don’t Gano what I’m Doing (3-10)

As Sticky so astutely pointed out on the group text, the only team with nothing to gain or lose this week is Ok Lowes. After he said that, something occurred to me: If he were an unscrupulous competitor, Lowes could bench his entire team and completely guarantee that I finish DFL. But Brennan has much more honor than that, and I’m gunna get waxed anyways, so let’s keep the mystery alive everyone!

Prediction: Ok over Gano

PICKS OF THE WEEK (Brought to you by the Sigma Chi Alumni Golf Tournament – Sign up Everyone!) _{– Soroush I still haven’t received confirmation of a waived fee, please message my business manager to clear this matter up immediately}

Last Week’s Picks Record: (4-2)

NFL Spread (8-4):

Dallas/Houston OVER 44 points. How is this only 44 points. Dallas is going to score 44 points by themselves, probably mostly on defense (definitely not with Zeke and Pollard, so seriously Brennan, just play your guys)